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Free micro-learning articles on strategy, decision-making frameworks, and game theory. OODA loop, regret minimization, second-order thinking, and more.
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We are wired to study winners. We deconstruct the habits of billionaires, the stacks of successful startups, and the diets of Olympians. This is a fatal error. By only looking at those who "survived," we miss the critical data hidden in those who died.
Most people think the "best" decision wins. They are wrong. In high-stakes environments, the *fastest* cycle wins. The OODA Loop is a combat strategy that explains how to disorient your competition by processing data faster than they can.
In 1896, Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto noticed that 80% of Italy's land was owned by 20% of the population. Then he noticed 80% of the peas in his garden came from 20% of the pods. This ratio appeared everywhere. It became one of the most powerful frameworks in modern business.
You are three years into a career you hate. You've already invested too much to quit now. You're 200 pages into a terrible book. You might as well finish it. You've spent $40,000 on a startup that isn't working. You keep going because you can't write off the loss.
First-order thinking asks: "What will happen if I do this?" Second-order thinking asks: "And then what? And after that?"
In 1994, Jeff Bezos had a secure, high-paying job at D.E. Shaw hedge fund in New York. He was being considered for a senior vice president role. Then he read about the internet growing at 2,300% per year, and an idea formed: an online bookstore.
Charlie Munger — Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway — is famous for one piece of advice he gives repeatedly: "Invert, always invert." He borrowed this from the 19th-century mathematician Carl Jacobi, who solved complex problems by reversing them.